Deming, New Mexico 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

208
FXUS64 KEPZ 301816
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
1216 PM MDT Sun Mar 30 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1205 PM MDT Sun Mar 30 2025

 - Warm, dry, and windy most afternoons through much of next week.

 - Strongest winds with near-critical to critical fire weather
   conditions today, Tuesday and Wednesday.

 - High Wind Watches are in place for Tuesday

 - Above normal temperatures through Tuesday with normal to below
   normal Wednesday onward

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 315 AM MDT Sun Mar 30 2025

Much of the CONUS finds itself influenced by a long-wave UL trough
this morning with several embedded s/w troughs. Main jet energy
runs across the Desert SW, including NM. A compact s/w trough will
dash across the state today within that flow, bringing us more
breezy conditions. H500 jet max of around 65 knots will be
comparable to yesterday`s system, but the surface pattern will be
weaker as high pressure across the Plains inhibits lee troughing.
Instead a broad 1001 mb low will form across Eastern NM. H850 flow
will increase to around 25 to 30 knots. It will be enough wind to
raise fire weather concerns, but not enough to signal a wind
advisory. Some blowing dust will also loft, but with less impact
than yesterday expected.

A s/w ridge will translate across the state for Monday bringing a
downtick in wind. This ridge will be ahead of a much larger system
with a large jet streak expected to start nosing into the Plains
by Tuesday afternoon. Lee cyclogenesis will lead to around a 980
mb low across NE KS with its trough axis trailing to its south
across the NM-TX line. Meanwhile flow will strengthen throughout
the column in response to the approaching jet. Tuesday looks to be
a windy day as a result as H700 flow increases to around 50 knots
with H850 flow around 35 to 40 knots. NBM 75th percentile QMD top
gusts shows widespread 50-65 MPH gusts for Tuesday. The system is
a little late on timing, so confidence lowlands will see high
wind warning caliber winds is a little lacking. For east slope
areas, given NBM probabilities for wind gusts greater than 60 MPH
(around 70% for El Paso but as high as 95% for mountains and east
slopes of the San Andres/ Organs), pattern recognition and bufkit
forecast soundings, I felt confident enough to hoist a high wind
watch for the favored windy areas across the CWA. That is the
Gila, Blacks, East Slopes of WSMR and El Paso, and the Sacramento
Mountains. Given FROPA and jet passage, strongest winds will
probably occur for these locations between 0z and 6z, which is
when the watch expires. Widespread blowing dust will also be an
issue as will be high to very high fire danger. Expect dust
advisories, high wind warnings, and wind advisories to be hoisted
on future updates if current trends continue.

By Wednesday, the lead jet streak will be exiting into the Plains,
and we`ll be behind a Pacific front. Nevertheless, the main jet
will still be oriented over Southern NM and Far West Texas with a
decent pressure gradient. Wednesday will be pretty breezy to
windy, but winds do not appear as high as Tuesday. In fact, the
NBM 75th percentile is about 5 to 10 knots lower for a max gust
compared to Tuesday. Blowing dust and high fire danger will remain
a concern, and some wind advisories may be needed.

Thursday through next weekend`s weather will be subject to an UL
trough that is expected to close off toward the Colorado River
Valley on Thursday into Friday before progressing eastward. The
GFS and Euro continue to show differences on the handling of this
low with the Euro favoring a secondary low more to NV and thus a
more northward and drier trek. Using LREF cluster analysis the
Euro is probably truer to reality (95% of the clusters show a more
northern trek). In terms of impacts, Thursday looks breezy
although a messy surface pattern and weakening flow throughout the
column will limit wind intensity. The GFS starts the formation of
a warm conveyor belt giving us a chance for rain by evening. The
Euro has this feature too, but is slower, weaker, and a bit
farther north giving us a brief shot for a rain on Friday as
opposed to a more prolonged period in the GFS. The more northern
trek of the Euro dry slots us for Saturday suggesting a breezy day
while the GFS keeps us at the south end of the warm conveyor belt
before dry slotting us in the afternoon. In either case, both
models allow cooler air to push into the CWA. The degree of
cooling remains uncertain and the operational NBM splits the
difference.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1205 PM MDT Sun Mar 30 2025

West winds will slowly increase through the afternoon hours, with
sustained winds around 20 knots and gusts 30 to 35 knots at times,
peaking between 21Z and 00Z as mixing heights climb to just shy of
600 mb levels. Should reach AWW criteria at ELP for a few hours
this afternoon and early evening, but lack of stronger winds aloft
will keep things on the lower-end of criteria.

With winds generally running 260 to 280 before dark, dense blowing
dust will mostly miss TAF sites, with DMN and LRU possibly seeing
4 to 5SM at worst, and 5 to 6SM at ELP.

Winds will diminish after dark, and lighter winds look to prevail
on Monday.

Skies will remain mostly clear with some increasing cirrus during
the day Monday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 315 AM MDT Sun Mar 30 2025

...CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR TODAY, TUESDAY, AND
WEDNESDAY...

Winds will increase again this afternoon but not as high as what
was seen yesterday, topping out around 20 MPH. These winds will
combine with single digit min RH values with even mountain
locations staying below 15%. This will lead to near critical to
marginally critical fire conditions with a red flag warning in
effect. The windiest areas will be along east slopes and exposed
peaks of higher terrain.

Monday will feature a break from winds, only topping out 10 to 15
MPH but min RH will be only a percent or two higher than Sunday.
No fire products are in effect.

A more significant storm system will push into the area on Tuesday
bringing strong winds area wide. RFTI component on winds alone
will be a 4 for just about every location. These winds will
combine with min RH values in the lower teens. Mountains will see
mid teens to as high as mid 20s across peaks. Nevertheless, the
Sacramento Mountains were still included in the fire weather watch
given the forecast for strong winds. A High Wind Watch is also in
effect as 20-foot gusts look to approach or exceed 50 MPH. The
Gila is also within the high wind watch with similarly low min RH
values, but opted to leave it out of the Fire Weather Watch given
wetter fuels. Winds decrease for some for Wednesday by about 5 to
10 MPH, but are expected to still be above critical thresholds.
Min RH values will be comparable to or even a little lower than
Tuesday. More fire headlines will likely be needed. Winds finally
decrease for Thursday and moisture starts an increase for Friday,
yielding a break from significant fire weather concerns.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  80  50  81  53 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca            74  45  76  48 /   0   0   0   0
Las Cruces               75  41  78  46 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo               75  42  77  49 /   0   0   0   0
Cloudcroft               52  30  55  40 /   0   0   0   0
Truth or Consequences    76  43  78  50 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City              66  38  70  43 /   0   0   0   0
Deming                   77  40  80  46 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg                74  38  78  43 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro       77  51  79  55 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City                78  42  81  47 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Hancock             81  46  83  48 /   0   0   0   0
Loma Linda               71  45  73  48 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                   79  47  81  50 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa             76  45  79  50 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ           76  50  79  56 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range            76  39  78  48 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                    78  39  81  51 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                 78  45  82  50 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande                75  43  77  48 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                  66  35  70  46 /   0   0   0   0
Mescalero                63  33  66  43 /   0   0   0   0
Timberon                 62  32  64  39 /   0   0   0   0
Winston                  67  29  71  39 /   0   0   0   0
Hillsboro                73  39  78  47 /   0   0   0   0
Spaceport                76  37  79  45 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts             66  34  70  41 /   0   0   0   0
Hurley                   70  35  72  41 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                    73  33  77  39 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek               68  36  72  43 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                  69  40  73  45 /   0   0   0   0
Animas                   77  39  80  44 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                  76  38  80  44 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells           76  40  81  47 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale               71  43  75  46 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Wind Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday evening
     for Eastern/Central El Paso County.

     Red Flag Warning until 7 PM MDT this evening for Texas Fire
     Weather Zone 055 El Paso County- Texas Fire Weather Zone
     056 Hudspeth County.

     Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday
     evening for Texas Fire Weather Zone 055 El Paso County-
     Texas Fire Weather Zone 056 Hudspeth County.

NM...High Wind Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday evening
     for East Slopes Sacramento Mountains Below 7500 Feet-
     Eastern Black Range Foothills-Sacramento Mountains Above
     7500 Feet-Southern Gila Region Highlands/Black Range-West
     Central Tularosa Basin/White Sands.

     Red Flag Warning until 7 PM MDT this evening for Capitan and
     Sacramento Mountains/Lincoln NF/LNZ- South Central Lowlands
     and Southern Rio Grande Valley/BLM/GLZ- Southwest Deserts
     and Lowlands/Las Cruces BLM/GLZ.

     Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday
     evening for Capitan and Sacramento Mountains/Lincoln NF/LNZ-
      South Central Lowlands and Southern Rio Grande
     Valley/BLM/GLZ- Southwest Deserts and Lowlands/Las Cruces
     BLM/GLZ.

&&

$$

FORECASTER...25-Hardiman